Ukraine has declared it will continue striking Russian oil refineries with long-range drones, openly defying pressure from Washington after President Donald Trump struck a commercial diesel supply deal with Vladimir Putin — a deal born, according to Axios, directly from Kyiv's refusal to stand down.
The confrontation has been building for weeks. Trump repeatedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy throughout September and October to scale back attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, arguing the strikes were contributing to fuel shortages and rising gas prices in the United States, Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing Axios. Zelenskyy, according to a senior US official familiar with the situation cited by Axios, ignored half a dozen such requests — offering instead a conditional halt: Ukraine would stop targeting refineries if Russia ceased its attacks on Ukrainian power plants. Trump rejected the equivalence. The US official said flatly that Trump 'didn't see the attacks on refineries as equivalent to Russian strikes on Ukraine's power grid.'
Eight hours of talks in Miami between Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and a senior Ukrainian delegation — which included Davyd Arakhamiia, Rustem Umierov, Kyrylo Budanov, and Serhii Kyslytsia — failed to produce a Ukrainian concession, Ukrainska Pravda reported. During those sessions, Witkoff and Kushner briefed the Ukrainian side and European representatives on potential energy deals with Russia, which the US hopes will incentivize Moscow toward peace negotiations. A Ukrainian official told Axios that Witkoff and Kushner threatened to cut Ukraine off from US intelligence if the strikes continued; the US official denied any such threat was made. Trump then moved unilaterally, deciding to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports and open American and international markets to Russian fuel. A senior Ukrainian official responded with characteristic bluntness, telling the Financial Times: 'We will burn [Russian] refineries.' Meanwhile, energy intelligence firm Kpler has raised sharp questions about whether Moscow can fulfill its end of the bargain at all. Russian refineries are currently operating at approximately 60 percent of installed capacity, according to data cited by the Financial Times, the result of Ukrainian drone strikes that have forced operational halts, emergency repairs, and created persistent equipment deficits. 'The biggest question for me is: where are they going to get the diesel from?' said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler. 'Russia does not have an export problem. It has a refining problem.'
The Trump-Putin diesel arrangement places Washington and Kyiv in open strategic contradiction — with the United States effectively seeking commercial benefit from Russian energy infrastructure that Ukraine is simultaneously trying to destroy. The US official cited by Axios warned that Zelenskyy is 'eroding the good will that he has built with Trump over the last six months' by pressing on with the strikes, adding that 'the attacks on the refineries cause pain in Russia, but it causes pain for the US, too.' Whether Ukraine's continued interdiction campaign renders the Trump-Putin deal commercially unworkable remains an open question — one that energy analysts at Kpler appear to believe is already being answered on the ground.
Ukraine has stated its position clearly: it will not halt strikes on Russian refineries in exchange for a unilateral ceasefire on that front. Whether Moscow can fulfill its commitments under the Trump diesel arrangement — given the documented degradation of its refining capacity — remains an open question that neither Washington nor Kyiv has answered.